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THIS PAPER INTRODUCES SIX VARIABLES TO CAPTURE DIFFERENCES IN SOCIO-POLITICAL FORECASTING SYSTEMS, AND OFFERS A CATEGORIZATION OF FORECASTING APPROACHES. THESE ARE CROSS REFERENCED WITH THE FORECASTING CIRCUMSTANCES TO PRODUCE RECOMMENDATIONS FOR AN APPROPRIATE TECHNIQUE. MOST OF THE EXAMPLES ARE FROM FOREIGN POLICY AND INTERNATIONAL POLITICS, AND CONCENTRATE ON FOREIGN ENERGY POLICY.

We investigate homophily in the tie structure of the global Internet by estimating Exponential Random Graph models. Specifically, we analyze the extent to which different variables including Gross National Income, geographic proximity, political regime type, and press freedom rating account for the pattern of direct country-to-country Internet connections. Results show that for 2011-2014, but not before, press freedom homophily is significantly predictive of the presence (or absence) of country-to-country Internet connections even when controlling for geographic proximity, bandwidth, and whether or not a country is democratic. The findings provide insights into changes in press freedom around the world and the evolution of the global Internet structure.

This is an accepted version of the manuscript published by Taylor & Francis in Journal of Global Information Technology Management in 2017, available online: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/1097198X.2017.1354597. ; The current study examines the relationship between regime type and country access to the Internet at both domestic and global levels by conducting longitudinal analyses of economic and social indicators and Internet data between 2002 and 2014. In particular, the authors investigate how a country's position in the global Internet network is associated with the country's type of political institution while taking into account its economic growth, population, and education level. The current analysis shows that democracies dominated the global Internet network both in 2002 and in 2014. Finally, the panel regression and network analyses suggest that it is important to consider network characteristics in investigating whether and how a country's regime type influences the country's Internet adoption.

Science can serve as an attractive mode for trust building and cooperative engagement between countries where formal political or diplomatic relations have been strained or are nonexistent. In this article we discuss some conditions and constraints for bilateral academic science engagement and suggest how such engagement might help to build trust between the United States and North Korea. We analyze longitudinal data on North Korea's diplomatic ties and international academic collaboration as well as US public opinion data to provide context for US-North Korea science engagement. We argue that bilateral academic science engagement should be attractive to the United States and North Korea and suggest a set of policy measures that might facilitate such engagement. (Asian Perspect/GIGA)

"Problem representation" and "ontology" are introduced as concepts critical to understanding foreign policy decision making. The article explicates these concepts and their relationship and focuses on such issues of representation rather than veridical descriptions of reality, thereby shifting attention away from concern with misperception and toward attempting to understand how these representations are socially constructed and modified. It is argued that the conflict resolution process can be enhanced by inclusion of concerns with "problem representation" and "ontology" along with traditional interest in "option selection." These concepts are then related to decision making in the cuban missile crisis. Two different ways of using new information on the crisis — and more generally understanding foreign policy decision making — are presented. The first is deemed an "option selection" perspective. A second approach expresses a theory of foreign policy decision making in a model of one important aspect of the Cuban missile crisis — the debate over whether Soviet missiles in Cuba were offensive. That model illustrates why focusing primarily on options or alternatives may obscure the most critical determinants of decision making. By focusing on ontologies and problem representations, the new model illustrates an approach to understanding and representing why some decision makers are predisposed to particular options over others.

Much has been written about the "new technology" of U.S. elections: computerized letters, data banks of potential contributors, advanced video advertising techniques, speedy transportation and communication, and instant analysis of polling data. If one examines these discussions for a sense of how the growing use of these new technologies has changed the politics of elections, one finds several themes. Many scholars and journalists have described, for example, the high dollar costs of technology-dependent campaigns, the consequent influence of political action committees, how presidential candidates in particular are "marketed," via the media, like toothpaste or breakfast cereal, and the prevalence in campaigns of superficial image rather than issues. We argue here that these changes in the way elections are conducted are associated with a deeper change in the conception of elections. The core of this argument is that changes in election technology have made possible the conduct of campaigns in which "strategy" has taken on a new meaning, and that leaders and the public share a view of elections that has progressively less to do with education, public discourse, or participation.